If you asked me two months ago for my predictions for the 2022 midterms, I would have probably said that Democrats would pick up a seat or two in the Senate and lose the House.

If you asked me the same question the morning of Election Day, I would have a much more pessimistic view. The polls had narrowed, and the outlook seemed to look worse by the hour. In Pennsylvania, it looked like Democrats would win the governorship but lose the Senate race against Mehmet Oz. Nationally, it seemed like both the House and Senate would turn red.

Yet as the results rolled in Tuesday night, I found myself becoming more hopeful as the night went on. The Governor race was a landslide for Attorney General Josh Shapiro, and the Senate race showed a widening lead for Fetterman over Oz. 

This pattern of outperformance was echoed in other races across the nation. The balance in the Senate rests on the results of three races — Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. As of writing, it looks like Arizona will go blue and Nevada red. If that’s how the dominos fall, it will be down to Georgia. 

In what seems like a near perfect repeat of 2020, a run-off election in Georgia with Rev. Raphael Warnock as the Democratic candidate will decide which party controls the Senate. 

For those who were hoping for an end to campaign ads and texts asking for donations after the election, relief will have to wait until December. 

A Democratic majority in the House — which seemed impossible — also seems increasingly feasible. While still unlikely, many competitive seats are still up in the air. 

There have been some major upsets, like in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Lauren Boebert, a far-right Republican who FiveThirtyEight gave a 97/100 chance of winning, is straddling a razor-thin margin over her Democratic opponent. 

The reasons for the Democrats’ better-than-expected performance aren’t yet nailed down, but it seems that youth turnout was a main driving force. 

This was bolstered by popular policies like President Biden’s student debt forgiveness and promise of rescheduling marijuana, as well as backlash against the conservative Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June. 

The takeaway here is clear: progressive policy is popular. If Democrats want to keep their momentum and have any chance in 2024, they need to lean into their championing of these issues. Student debt, reproductive rights, Medicare For All and raising the minimum wage are all tickets to electoral success.  

These policies have overwhelming support, and if Democrats want the youth turnout that helped stabilize them in 2022 to carry over to 2024, they need to make them a priority. 

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